In the normal situation, during this year or early next year, there will be a great changes in our energy industry. Changes are everywhere, energy trading mode change, emergence of new forms of energy, new industry pattern change, new energy market. Energy observation research believes that currently we should focus on the seven energy industry.
1.The domestic solar power system generation will achieve “0-1” breakthrough. The
first solar thermal demonstration project announced soon, the benchmark price policy announced synchronization. Solar thermal power generation explosive growth curtain went up, the first beneficiary is device manufacturer. Due to it’s contribution, controlled storage , the Solar thermal power generation projects are concerned by the leader. According to the plan of National Energy Board, a solar thermal demonstration projects is 1GW, The scale of investment is about 30 billion yuan; the domestic scale solar thermal power projects are 10 million kilowatts, is expected to invest 300 billion yuan. by end of 2015, the domestic pilot projects are less than 20 MW. After pilot demonstration, under the policy support of solar thermal power generation , it will become commercialized stage of development.
2. electricity restructuring and reform will fall in the sale of electricity side. After a new round of power change, this year will be the first year of the reform program, transmission and distribution tariff reform, electricity trading center building, the sale of electricity side to promote reform, it is expected to be phased nervous. Among them, the sale of electricity power to change the side of reform is incremental links, the sale of electricity trillion market confidence decide whether the official launch of a new round of reform. Only if the reform program continues carry out. The policy benefit will reach, the relevant DSM, energy internet system construction will have a foundation.
3. the abandon wind and light problem for energy is intensifying. The solar off grid system is growing, and the same period net consumptive problem are even worse. Particularly in Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other hardest hit places, the National Energy Board will tightened in the rhythm of new projects, canceled the approval of new projects for abandoned light and wind areas .that means the new energy development pace will slow down, the development of new energy industry becomes rational. After the new energy developers occupy a lot of resources to run the project, they started from project tuned to operation.
4. thermal power overcapacity, it is suffering the most stringent controls in the history. National Energy Board have canceled the thermal power project, which plagued by overcapacity thermal power industry, even worse. Thermal power will not only paid for the rapid growth over the past decade excess installed capacity, but also faced the increasingly tough competition in the market. The competition comes from two aspects, one is the competition between plants, the second one is the competition of non-fossil energy. After the thermal power began to cool, and fire-related equipment manufacturing also experienced difficulties.
5.Coal is still in the bottom of the consolidation, waiting for the large cycle recovery. Coal is the main area last year, After coal golden years, it began to face a harsh policy and market environment. A series of tightening measures start point to the once-great industries, such as Land and Resources issued on support for the coal industry to resolve the overcapacity opinions, the clearly opinions: for coal industry new projects, land use approval will not be entertained; for the people unapproved with state regulations, record industry of serious excess capacity projects, shall not arrange construction land use plan. Currently, the market appears weak return, but the trend point of view is still at the bottom of the consolidation.
6.The distributed energy is a new increment. Distributed energy can be due to spontaneous personal use, without the power delivery constraints, their competitive advantage is magnified. The performance of distributed energy consumptive entire grid can be used as the main body involved in the sale of electricity power market competition, the national policy level planning 70GW distributed off grid solar system projects, Distributed amplification makes room for growth. When a centralized energy issues more prominent, the value of distributed energy will be highlighted.
7. new energy vehicles development are faster than expected. Although not subsidize new energy vehicles is still a sunrise industry, that matches your charging pile, auto parts manufacturers, battery manufacturers in the industry chain is round the biggest beneficiaries. After the course was opened cheat subsidies, the industry will be more rational, Government regulation will also be more stringent. But the general trend, the new alternative energy vehicle acceleration is not too far.
No comments:
Post a Comment